Meteoproof is an independent platform that systematically compares weather model forecasts with what was actually observed. Every day it tracks the leading global models for locations in Belgium, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, France and Germany, and stores every run. That makes it possible to see not only how accurate a model is, but also how its forecast for a given day shifted from run to run.

I've been fascinated by weather since childhood, and for more than twenty years I've followed weather models closely: on weather forums, and through my own forecasts and synoptic analyses. Over the years you learn how each model behaves: its systematic biases, how it handles certain weather types and seasons, and how much it swings from one run to the next.

Anyone who does that long enough discovers that memory falls short. What did a model show three days ago? How often did it miss in a similar situation? Meteoproof grew out of the wish to answer those questions with data rather than impressions.

Forecasts are verified against official observations from, among others, the KMI/RMI, KNMI, Met Office, Météo-France and DWD. For each model and each lead time, Meteoproof tracks accuracy, bias and run-to-run stability for maximum and minimum temperature, dew point, precipitation and wind gusts. At the synoptic scale, the large-scale 500 hPa pattern is verified as well.

The deterministic models currently verified are ECMWF IFS, AIFS, GFS, AIGFS, ICON, GEM and UKMO, alongside five ensemble systems (ECMWF-ENS, AIFS-ENS, GEFS, ICON-EPS and GEPS).

The goal isn't to crown one model the best. Performance depends on the weather situation, the season and how far ahead the forecast looks. Meteoproof makes those differences visible and measurable.

Read exactly how the verification works →

• Independent. Meteoproof is not affiliated with any modelling centre, weather service or commercial weather provider.
• Transparent. The methodology is public. Every run is stored and counted, including the ones that turned out to be wrong.
• Tested first. New models and Meteoproof's own calculation methods are first tested on historical data. What doesn't hold up there doesn't make it onto the site.
• Freely accessible. No paywall, no account required.

Meteoproof is under active development: new models, locations and ways of analysing forecast data are added regularly.