METEOPROOF - Model Verification & Validation

📊 Daily Model Verification

Compare model performance and forecast evolution per run timestamp against observations.

Quick Date Navigation

💡 How to read this chart?

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This chart shows how the forecast for a specific target date changes as the calculation run approaches (from left to right, from D-13 to D-0).

Each step on the X-axis represents a specific run timestamp. (Example: D-9_12z is the forecast from the 12:00 UTC run generated 9 days prior to this target date).

The cyan dotted line (Cluster Consensus) calculates the median of all models per run to filter out extreme outliers, running through to the end of the period to show the stable trend.

Multimodel Performance Matrix & RMSE Verification

Target Date: -- | Location: -- (Max)

Reference: --. Calculated RMSE values (Average for D-2 through D-7):

RMSE Scale (°C):

≤0.6 1.0 2.0 3.8 4.5 ≥5.0 None

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💡 What is the Performance Matrix & RMSE?

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This figure displays the average deviation in degrees Celsius (°C) relative to the reference (Official observation).

The lower the number (green), the more accurate the model was.

📅 Monthly Model Verification (D-6 RMSE)

Overview of RMSE for D-6 per day of the selected month.

Forecast Horizon:

Monthly Overview --

Focus on D-6 Forecast Performance

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RMSE Scale (°C):

≤0.6 1.0 2.0 3.8 4.5 ≥5.0 None

💡 How to read this Daily Monthly Verification Table

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Calendar Days & Coverage: The table lists all calendar days of the selected month sequentially. Click on any date to instantly jump to its Daily Verification view.

Unverified Data Warning: Days marked with a yellow triangle (⚠️) indicate that the official observation is not yet available, and the median of model runs is used as a temporary reference.

Forecast Horizon Selection & Filtering:
• D1-6: Average calculated over D-1 t/m D-6 (including all models, handling missing terms dynamically).
• D7-13: Average calculated over D-7 t/m D-13 (excluding ICON due to limited data).
• TOTAL: Overall average across all days D-1 t/m D-13 (excluding ICON and UKMO to prevent bias from limited horizons).

Color Coding & Performance: Each cell displays the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) in degrees Celsius for a specific model on that day, color-coded according to accuracy.

Monthly Horizon Summary (D-1 to D-13 Averages)

Average Monthly RMSE per Forecast Horizon

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RMSE Scale (°C):

≤0.6 1.0 2.0 3.8 4.5 ≥5.0 None

💡 How to read this Horizon Summary Table

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Forecast Horizons (D-1 to D-13): Aggregates monthly performance vertically per lead time, showing how model skill degrades or improves over advance time.

Model Averages & Filtering: Note that for extended horizons where data is sparse, averages are calculated reliably across available robust model runs.