METEOPROOF - Model Verification & Validation Benelux

📊 Daily Model Verification & Validation

Compare model performance and forecast evolution per run timestamp against observations.

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How to read this chart? This chart shows how the forecast for a specific target date changes as the calculation run approaches (from left to right, from D-13 to D-0). Each step on the X-axis represents a specific run timestamp. (Example: D-9_12z is the forecast from the 12:00 UTC run generated 9 days prior to this target date). The cyan dotted line (Cluster Consensus) calculates the median of all models per run to filter out extreme outliers, running through to the end of the period to show the stable trend.

Multimodel Performance Matrix & RMSE Verification

Target Date: -- | Location: -- (Max)

Reference: --. Calculated RMSE values (Average for D-2 through D-7):

RMSE Scale (°C):

≤0.6 1.0 2.0 3.8 4.5 ≥5.0 None

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What is RMSE? This figure displays the average deviation in degrees Celsius (°C) relative to the reference (Official observation). The lower the number (green), the more accurate the model was.

📅 Monthly Model Verification (D-6 RMSE)

Overview of RMSE for D-6 per day of the selected month.

Forecast Horizon:

Monthly Overview --

Focus on D-6 Forecast Performance

RMSE Scale (°C):

≤0.6 1.0 2.0 3.8 4.5 ≥5.0 None

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💡 How to read this Monthly Verification Table

Calendar Days & Coverage: The table lists all calendar days of the selected month sequentially (from the 1st to the last day). Days without recorded model or observation data are displayed as None.

Unverified Data Warning: Days marked with a yellow triangle (⚠️) indicate that the official observation is not yet available, and the median of model runs is used as a temporary reference.

Forecast Horizon Selection: Using the navigation buttons at the top (D-1 through D-13), you can choose which forecast lead time to evaluate. By default, the view focuses on D-6 (forecasts calculated 6 days ahead of the target date).

Color Coding & Performance: Each cell displays the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) in degrees Celsius for a specific model on that day, color-coded according to the global accuracy scale (from dark green for low errors to dark red/maroon for high errors).

Daily & Monthly Best Performances: The rightmost column indicates which model achieved the lowest RMSE (best performance) for each specific day. The bottom summary rows display both the overall average RMSE and total best-performance count per model across the entire month.